Dogecoin shifting to proof-of-stake would be good for the environment, but what impact would it have on miners and ASIC manufacturers?
A change from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake (PoS) is rumored for Dogecoin.
Do I know if Dogecoin is switching to PoS?
Do I believe it will go to PoS? Probably not.
But I love the “what if” game.
I try to predict where the market and the mining industry are headed as someone who works in the cryptocurrency mining sector and how that might pan out. The mining industry would be drastically affected if Dogecoin changed PoS or another aspect of how new blocks are created.
The options and their results are shown here.
Scrypt Mining Could Be Devastated
I won’t argue for or against Dogecoin switching to PoS. While it’s hard to determine if the recent rumors about the potential for a switch are true or not, they were enough to have Bitmain supposedly pause Litecoin miner manufacturing.
The larger question in my mind is, What occurs to miners if Dogecoin adopts PoS?
First, Scrypt mining would be devastated. Over 60% of the revenue from Scrypt mining is made up of DOGE. Any L3+, LT6, or Mini Doge Pro miner that isn’t using electricity that costs $0.04 per kilowatt hour would need to be unplugged right away if it were taken away.
For a while, the network would probably fluctuate erratically as older equipment miners struggled to decide whether to leave their ASICSs on or off. The apex Scrypt miner, Bitmain’s Antminer L7, would see its profitability reduced by nearly 75%, reducing profits to a whopping $4.83/day at $0.05/kWh.
What about the miners who lack access to industrial electric rates? You could make $0.72 per day using the L7 9050M, which recently sold for about $9,000, at a cost of $0.10 per kWh.
The likelihood of those who recently bought an L7 ever recovering their investment, let alone making any money, would be extremely low in the event of such a significant change.
ASIC Manufacturers Would Be Forced to Drop Prices, Further Impacting Their Bottom Line
The vastly reduced profitability would inevitably lead to the price of the L7 dropping quicker than it did during the COVID-19-induced crypto crash. Miners would expect the L7 to cost between $1,825 (12-month ROI) and $2,737.50 (18-month ROI) if miners were only charged based on the length of their expected ROI. This reflects a minimum price reduction of nearly 70%.
How quickly would Bitmain respond? Would they gradually lower prices week after week, as Goldshell has done with many of its miners in recent months? As customers witnessed the price of the miner they had just spent thousands of dollars on being repeatedly reduced, this tactic repeatedly left them with a bad taste in their mouths.
Or would Bitmain announce that they would keep charging fairly for miners as they have been doing lately?
The consequences of a Dogecoin PoS shift would primarily affect ASIC resellers as well. Many L7 miners are suppliers, so stores holding those would need to immediately mark them down significantly. However, based on their recent history of price-gouging customers, like charging $60,000 for a KD6 that is barely worth over $1,000 today, it’s doubtful many tears would be shed for them.
Scrypt miners from numerous home mines would saturate eBay and comparable marketplaces. It would be a race to the bottom as desperate miners tried to salvage whatever value was still in the chunk of metal that can now only be used as a doorstop or display piece if one is desperate.
It would continue to mine litecoin. There wouldn’t really be a choice, so those L7s would continue to operate because they would still be somewhat profitable. If a more effective Scrypt miner isn’t already under development, it’s unlikely that a new Scrypt miner that could compete with the L7 will be released on the market anytime soon. There are some rumors that Bitmain is developing a miner that would be better than the L7.
The switch to PoS has already caused a significant amount of disruption, and we’ve only looked at one part of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. There would be a lot more issues and situations to think about.
How would that affect network security?
Would the yield from staking cause DOGE to eventually be labeled a security?
Would people embrace Dogecoin for the change or would they run away from what is currently the second-largest PoW coin by market cap?
My favorite what-if is now. Even though there are several possible outcomes for this option, it is unlikely and possibly even impossible.
What would happen if Dogecoin decided to develop its own mining algorithm instead of merging with LTC?
Innovation and Competition Are Healthy for Every Industry
What if there is a GPU mining renaissance? After the Ethereum Merge event, there’s a ton of really cheap GPUs available on the market. Those would get expensive really quickly. Mining purists would rejoice as they build their own mining rigs while trying to figure out how much DOGE they can stack. Though it wouldn’t last, it would be really cool to see. To be the first to market with an ASIC miner, the big three manufacturers Bitmain, Goldshell, and iBelink would compete fiercely.
Each of them would eventually have at least one ASIC miner available, and naturally, as time goes on, they’ll become stronger and more effective. The jumps and increases in difficulty would be ridiculous, and just like with Bitcoin
, it would eventually no longer be profitable to mine However, it could also lead to competition—something the ASIC manufacturing market desperately needs.
What if a door opens for another manufacturer or manufacturers to enter the market after the brief GPU mining renaissance? Currently, Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink are the “big three,” and it’s really Bitmain, which has complete market dominance. Although Bitmain would probably prevail, what if someone else could be first to market, maintain that advantage, and establish themselves as a reputable and trustworthy ASIC manufacturer?
What if that business made the decision to hire additional miners and pay them fairly? To be fair, we do have to praise Bitmain once more for the pricing on its recent rollout of industry-changing miners. Reseller markups are still a problem, but that is a different subject. Perhaps this “new” competitor would adhere to the mantra that customer service actually matters. That might occur if consumers could get past their skepticism about the product’s dependability and the business produced a quality product. There are a lot of what-ifs there, no doubt.
A money-grab scenario for Dogecoin exists as an alternative. The project could go directly to Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink and say, “We’re developing our own mining algorithm, which we’ll only give to you. How much money will you give us?”
What price would Goldshell be willing to pay to resurrect a business that has suffered numerous setbacks as a result of the most recent Bitmain altcoin miner releases? Or would iBelink fight tooth and nail to secure the manufacturing rights to the miner? IBelink recently unveiled the BM-K3 Kadena miner, which boasts 70 terahashes, a significant increase of almost 75% over the next closest model. However, the company can’t celebrate just yet because Bitmain will soon surpass that with the KA3, which will deliver 166 THs. How much would Bitmain pay to keep its market dominance if Dogecoin manufacturers made an offer?
No Change Could Be a Good Thing
What if DOGE chooses to simply continue with Scrypt mining?
The status quo is not that exciting, but it seems to be the most likely outcome. Sure, some changes might get approved by a vote, but Scrypt-based merge mining of Dogecoin and LTC is most likely to continue.
Bitmain is likely to continue pushing out L7 inventory before launching a more efficient Scrypt miner later this year AND In essence, two Mini Doge Pros in one box, Goldshell will release a Mini Doge Pro 2 for home miners. Numerous older models will probably be forced to permanently stop operating due to the impending LTC halving and the introduction of more productive miners.
The Goldshell Mini-DOGE is still a worth-buying Dogecoin ASIC miner.
The value of cryptocurrencies will increase and decrease. It’s likely that there will be another crypto scandal that no one anticipates but that, in retrospect, will be blatantly obvious. The sun will rise and set. Naturally, the majority of suppliers, particularly resellers, will continue to mark up miners and take advantage of loyal customers in any way they can.
Dogecoin’s future is impossible to predict, but the cryptocurrency sector is one of the few where anything can happen at any time.
Regardless of whether Dogecoin switches to PoS, the crypto mining landscape has always changed rapidly, and Scrypt mining is no different.
Change is coming.